The month of March was a great month for consumers of energy – other than oil and gasoline. The 12 month strip closed out March at $2.800/MMBtu. That resulted in a drop of $0.273/MMBtu or over 8.8% from the February close of $3.073/MMBtu. Meanwhile the strip for months 13 through 24 experienced a decline of $0.093/MMBtu as the market fell from $3.762/MMBtu to $3.669/MMBtu. The Henry Hub fell to $2.04/MMBtu, a drop of $0.40/MMBtu or over 16% and the prompt month declined to $2.126/MMBtu from $2.616/MMBtu. As an aside, oil closed out the month at $103.02/barrel versus a February close of $107.08/barrel and gasoline is setting new highs almost daily. The old theory of oil and natural gas moving together obviously does not hold in today’s energy market.
April and May (to date) Market Conditions: The month of April, save the last two days, was more of the same experienced in March. The market continued to fall as the twelve month strip hit a recent low of $2.559/MMBtu on April 19th and the second 12 month strip hit a low the next day at $3.424/MMBtu. Eight days later, on March 27th the market took off with an increase of over 15 cents/MMBtu followed by a steady increase. The 12 month strip closed April at $2.912/MMBtu and on May 11th (the time of this writing) the market had increased to $3.091/MMBtu. Most analyst are blaming the increase on the early heat wave, despite record volumes of storage. Oil prices fell to $96.13, a level not seen since just prior to Christmas. See the NYMEX strip chart and pricing matrix below for more details.

The May 13th 6 to 10 day weather forecast is calling for above average temperatures for most of the nation (except Florida) therefore pricing may continue at the current level with some increases possible. Suffice it to say the heating demand for natural gas is over. The winter of 2011/2012 was a bearish factor on the natural gas market as the winter set many records for warm temperature and low natural gas demand.
The latest Weekly Storage Reports show that currently there is 2,606 Bcf of gas in storage. That puts storage at 803 Bcf above the 5 year level and 799 Bcf above last year. The last couple of reports have shown this year’s injections to be below both the 5 year and last year injection levels however some analysts are talking about a potential for production shut-ins this fall due to pricing and/or a lack of storage. See the storage chart for more details.

When you are thinking of making a change to your lighting for improved energy efficiency, replacing your current lamps with reduced-wattage lamps with better technology seems like the most obvious as well as most cost effective and easiest solution. While lamp efficiency and technology is important, ballasts are equally critical in lighting operation. Understanding how ballasts work and the different types that are available is important when designing an efficient lighting system for your facility.

Ballasts are used in fluorescent and high-intensity discharge (HID) lights to provide proper starting and operation. When starting, most fluorescent and HID lights require a voltage several times higher than line voltage to create an electron emission or arc. Ballasts were developed to provide the needed starting voltage, with the two most common below.

Instant start-ballast types start lamps without heating the electrodes. Instant start ballasts are a good fit for applications where lamps are not turned on and off frequently.

Rapid start-ballast type lamp electrodes are heated prior to start, reducing the voltage required. Rapid start ballasts provide longer lamp life, but use slightly more energy than instant start models.

Ballast factor is the measure of the actual lumen output for a specific lamp-ballast system relative to the rated lumen output of the lamp. It is expressed as a percentage figure, ranging from 0.78 to 1.2. If you multiply the wattage of the lamp by ballast factor, that will give you actual wattage of the fixture.

A lamp ballast system with a lower ballast factor, even though it reduces lamp lumen output, consumes proportionally less input power. These systems produce the same level of light output as standard ballasts, but do so more efficiently, saving 2 to 5 watts per ballast, and therefore use less energy.

So now you understand that you not only must have the proper fixture and lamp, but also the approved ballasts. To verify if your choice is eligible for incentives or rebates, both lamp and ballast must be on the CEE Qualified Products list. The Consortium for Energy Efficiency (CEE), a nonprofit public benefits corporation, develops initiatives for its North American members to promote the manufacture and purchase of energy-efficient products and services.

The best chance for you to learn about these incentives is to have Coleman Hines’ Rebate Team screen your measures and evaluate your project for possible returned dollars. CHI is here to help from planning to inception and can assist in each step of the process to help “enlighten” you with solutions and “shine” with savings.

The 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) calls for a 30% energy efficiency increase in 100 watt light bulbs by January 2012. This efficiency standard will be applied to other typical wattage ratings through 2014 (i.e. 60 watts), but does not affect decorative, appliance, flood, 3-way or other specialty bulbs. This efficiency standard rules out the tungsten incandescent technology for standard wattage ratings. This older technology is very inefficient and up to 90% of the energy consumed is converted to heat instead of light. Even so, the lighting manufacturers can deliver the energy efficiency with any technology they choose, but it must meet the performance requirements of the Act. Currently, dimmable 72 watt halogen incandescent bulbs which meet the criteria of EISA are ready for purchase at your local retailer.

What about the reprieve I just heard about?

Congress has just passed a spending bill that removes funding for the enforcement of the energy efficiency standard for light bulbs through Sept. 30, 2012. This means that the Energy Department will not be able to impose fines on companies that violate the law due to lack of funding for personnel.

Larger lighting companies have been quoted in various news agencies as continuing to comply with EISA, especially after having spent large amounts of capital in new technologies and re-tooling manufacturing facilities to be in compliance. In fact, the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) helped to craft the 2007 law based on technology that its members (Phillips, GE and others) were already perfecting.

This national standard has already been applied in California, which adopted the lighting performance of the federal law a year early, beginning Jan. 1, 2011.

Is the U.S. the only country demanding efficiency standards for lighting?

No. Australia was the first country to begin mandating efficiency for light bulbs, which became effective in 2009. This type of standard then spread to the European Union, the United Kingdom, the Philippines, India, Argentina, Venezuela, Malaysia, New Zealand, Canada, Cuba and now China. China has just announced that it will completely ban the import and sales of specific incandescent bulbs beginning in October 2012. So far, this announcement is not an efficiency standard, but a complete ban.

To stay competitive in a global marketplace, lighting companies must continue to improve the efficiency of the products they offer to consumers. Since the new standard has gone into effect, the import and manufacture of the familiar 100 watt incandescent lamp has ceased. However many of our clients are installing new lamping technologies, such as LEDs, and are benefiting from up to 90% reductions in lighting energy usage as a result. This reduction, when coupled with incentives, can produce a return on investment of less than a year.

Coleman Hines will continue to stay informed on energy efficiency standards, practices and equipment to deliver its clients meaningful rebate programs for energy efficiency projects.

During December the natural gas market continued its downward slide. The NYMEX 12-month strip closed the month at $3.303/MMBtu which was down from the November close of $3.754/MMBtu. Numerous new recent lows were reached for the 12-month strip during the month, with the lowest set on December 30th at $3.303/MMBtu. On that same day a new low for the second 12 month strip (months 13 – 24) was set at $3.985/MMBtu. As a heads up on January, new lows have already been reached for both 12-month strips at $3.301 and $3.965/MMBtu, respectively. Although no new lows were set for the Henry Hub spot market during December, it is already seeing several closings below the $3/MMBtu barrier in early January. See the NYMEX strip chart and pricing matrix below for more details.

As of January 9th the near term weather forecasts, 6 to 10 days, are calling for normal temperatures in the midsection and Southeast portion of the country with below temperatures forecasted for the New England area and above normal temperatures in the West and Southwest. This could have a neutral to bearish impact on the natural gas market; however it could be tempered by the continuing attacks on fracking’s impact on the environment and articles that attempt to associate the process with earthquakes.

The final December Weekly Storage Report showed 3,472 Bcf in storage, that puts this year currently 356 Bcf above last year and 458 Bcf above the 5-year average. Without a major cold blast this season some analyst are talking about a potential for production shut-ins this fall. See the storage chart for more details.

As the case has been for many months, the increase in supply combined with the continuing low demand are the driving forces in the natural gas market. The supply increase is due largely to the new drilling techniques and the demand destruction results from the economic climate which is not showing any signs of a strong recovery. Weather and the new drilling techniques will continue to be wild cards.

UPDATE –

It should be noted that during the week of January 10th the market took a dramatic downturn. The previous week it closed at $3.366/MMBtu on Friday January 6th and by the close on the following Wednesday it fell to $3.114/MMBtu or a drop of 7.5% and was falling further during open trading on Thursday.

Equipment carrying the ENERGY STAR logo, such as computer products and peripherals, kitchen appliances, buildings and other products, generally uses 20%–30% less energy than required by federal standards.

The EPA establishes these specifications based on the following set of key guiding principles:

• Product categories must contribute significant energy savings nationwide.
• Qualified products must deliver the features and performance demanded by consumers, in addition to increased energy efficiency.
• If the qualified product costs more than a conventional, less-efficient counterpart, purchasers will recover their investment in increased energy efficiency through utility bill savings, within a reasonable period of time.
• Energy efficiency can be achieved through broadly available, non-proprietary technologies offered by more than one manufacturer.
• Product energy consumption and performance can be measured and verified with testing.
• Labeling would effectively differentiate products and be visible for purchasers.

To encourage customers to buy energy efficient products, products approved to display this symbolic logo will usually qualify the purchaser for a rebate for a portion of the purchase price.

What you may not know is that these specifications are continually scrutinized on a daily basis, and it is not unheard of for a piece of equipment to be on the qualified list one day, and literally fall off the list the next day. Your rebate team at Coleman Hines continually monitors the ENERGY STAR product list. When a client’s previously qualified equipment disappears from this list, CHI immediately notifies your vendor to review the circumstances. Normally this is due to recent specification criteria that has changed, and the revised equipment paperwork is still in review for reinstatement. Below are the most common reasons for revisions in specifications:

• A change in the Federal minimum efficiency standards.
• Technological changes with advances in energy efficiency which allows a revised ENERGY STAR specification to capture additional savings.
• Product availability
• Significant issues with consumers realizing expected energy savings
• Performance or quality issues
• Issues with Test Procedures

The most recent major revision that has prompted numerous models to fall off the list is in the Food Holding Cabinet category. Food Warming Equipment and Crescor models were included in the latest round of affected equipment. Hot food holding cabinet models that earn the ENERGY STAR must meet a maximum idle energy rate of 40 watts/cu ft and must be third-party certified by October 1, 2011 to remain qualified after that date.

Other Commercial Equipment in which specification revisions have been updated or are in development:

• Commercial Refrigerator and Freezers-new standards for 2012
• Ovens-Plans to include Combination ovens
• Ice Machines-air cooled specifications changes
• Dishwashers-Draft 3 proposal on 2.0 specifications
• Fryers-Must be third-party certified

Make sure you contact your vendor representative to see if these changes will or have effected your ENERGY STAR rated equipment. Without this certification and no presence on the ENERGY STAR listing, your equipment will not longer be eligible for rebate, even if meets the required specifications. Resolution may be as simple as your vendor submitting the required paperwork.

The cap-and-trade program establishes a statewide limit on facilities that are currently responsible for 85 percent of California’s carbon emissions. In total, the Board estimates that about 350 business will be subjected to the new regulations.

To create the standards, regulators collected three years of emissions data from the largest industries in the state. Regulators then calculated the average emissions by industry and established the benchmark standards for the program. Starting in 2012, businesses will be allowed to emit up to 90 percent of the benchmark. If a business emits less than its allowable amount, it may sell its excess credits on the market. The program works vice-versa for those businesses that exceed their allotted emissions. Those businesses that emit more than their allotment will have to purchase carbon offsets.

Former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger applauded the Board’s vote. “Today’s adoption of a cap-and-trade program is a major milestone for California’s continued leadership on reducing the world’s greenhouse gases. As I said both when we signed the legislation in 2006, and when we fought to protect it last year when Texas oil companies attempted to overturn it with Proposition 23, the most critical phase in the fight against climate change is diligently, aggressively, and correctly implementing this law.”

Other supporters, such as Gary Gero, president of Climate Action Reserve, say that California’s program will be a model for other jurisdictions. “People watch what California does and emulate it. Future cap-and-trade programs are going to pick up a lot of the design features we are implementing here. You’ll see regional programs develop. They will put pressure on the federal government. It will send ripples around the country.”

The new program has also generated criticism. The cost of energy is expected to increase as utilities pass any new regulatory costs on to their customers. As a consequence, there is a concern that the regulations could negatively impact California’s already struggling economy by pushing businesses to relocate outside the state or to avoid locating in California in the first place. Critics of the cap-and-trade program may also point to the research done by the independent Legislative Analyst’s Office, which concluded that jobs will probably be lost because of the burden on business.

The California market in the San Diego Gas & Electric (SDGE), Pacific Gas & Electric (PGE) and Southern California Edison (SCE) service areas was initially deregulated in 1997. In September 2001, the Direct Access market was suspended due to the energy crisis. Customers who were on a third-party contract at the time of the suspension could continue to purchase their electricity from a supplier. Customers who were not on a supply contract at that time, or any new locations that opened after that date, were not Direct Access eligible.

In October 2009, Senate Bill 695 was signed into law. This Bill allowed for the reopening of the Direct Access market on a phased-in, capped basis over a four-year period beginning in April 2010. Participation was established through an open enrollment process in which customers had to submit a Notice of Intent. The first three phases of the open enrollment occurred on April 16, 2010, July 16, 2010 and January 13, 2011. The response from customers was so overwhelming that the available load in each of the three open enrollments was fully subscribed in less than 10 seconds. At this time, the final open enrollment is scheduled for January 2012. Coleman | Hines submitted customer documentation during the first three open enrollment periods, and we were successful in getting many locations accepted as Direct Access eligible. We will be contacting you again in November to discuss your interest in submitting paperwork for any additional non-Direct Access sites.

In addition, recognizing that many customers want Direct Access, Senate Bill 855 has been introduced to expand the current cap. This Bill will be heard by the Assembly Utilities Committee in early 2012.

There are also several other key rules being considered that will impact Direct Access locations. One proposal is to reduce the current minimum stay provision from 3-years to 18 months. Another issue under review involves the Exit Fees currently charged to Direct Access customers. The recalculation of these charges will reduce the current Exit Fee and provide retroactive credits to locations in the SCE and SDGE service areas. A final ruling on these issues is expected by the end of October.

Arizona Deregulation

The Arizona markets in the Tucson Electric Power (TEP) and Arizona Public Service (APS) service areas were deregulated in 1997. Although the markets are deregulated, the Arizona Corporation Commission halted the divestiture requirements of the utilities and suspended the licensing requirements for suppliers until a decision could be made on whether deregulation was in the public interest.

At the present time, it does appear that the Commission is interested in advancing retail competition, and a Pilot Program has been filed by APS. The initial proposal for this Pilot Program is restrictive as it relates to customer load requirements; however, interveners and advocacy groups are discussing these concerns.

The slow downward trend continues. The 12-month strip opened on October 3rd at $4.077/MMBtu, and as of October 24th, it had slid to $3.923/MMBtu. This is the lowest that the index has been since exactly one year ago, October 25, 2010, when it was at $3.930/ MMBtu. All of this is after monthly declines in each month from May through September of this year. The market just keeps going lower. Further, the 12-month strip for months 13 through 24 also reached a recent low of $4.505/MMBtu after setting several recent lows throughout the summer months.

The near term weather forecasts call for below average temperatures in the South and Midwest. However, normal temperatures are expected to return in early November. This will have a bearish impact on the natural gas market.

Storage continues to increase as it gains ground on both last year’s and the five-year average levels. At the time of this writing, the weekly storage report shows the current storage level is at 3,624 Bcf, trailing last year’s level by only 46 Bcf. That is the closest this year has been to the previous year since April of 2011. Also, the report reveals that the current year level continues to increase its margin over the five-year average level which is at 3,511 Bcf resulting in a differential of 113 Bcf.

It is the same old story, but the increase in supply and low demand remain the driving forces in the natural gas market. The supply increase is due largely to new drilling techniques and the demand destruction results from the economic climate. Storage is no longer a concern and mother nature, both in terms of the hurricane season and the temperature forecast, is doing her part to keep prices low. See the storage chart for more details.

]]> http://colemanhines.com/2011/11/monthly-market-tracker-november-2011/feed/ 0 http://colemanhines.com/2011/10/epact-should-factor-into-project-planning/ http://colemanhines.com/2011/10/epact-should-factor-into-project-planning/#comments Wed, 12 Oct 2011 20:16:40 +0000 Neil Young http://colemanhines.com/?p=479